The lockdown is working and the number of new cases is expected to drop to 15,000 per day by the end of September, the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration’s said on Monday.

“The current situation is better than a scenario where we had done nothing,” said Dr Taweesin Visanuyothin, the spokesman for the CCSA. “We appear to be at the start of a downward trend.”

A semi-lockdown with curfew came into effect on July 12 before the introduction of additional restriction measures on July 20, and the extension on August 16.

The lockdown in 29 highly-controlled provinces will now last until August 31.

The last time the country reported more than 21,000 locally transmitted cases per day was on August 16 before dropping to less than 18,000 cases on Monday.

According to CCSA’s data and predictions, the number of daily cases would have been around 50,000 per day by now (black line on the graph) compared to around 20,000 per day over the past week.

 

 

 

The data also shows the scenario where if the lockdown is 25 per cent effective (green line), the situation similar to what is happening right now (orange), the number of daily cases would drop down to around 15,000 par day by the end of September.

However, the scenario also shows that cases could go back up to 30,000 per day by the beginning of December. Taweesin did not clarify why.

At the same time, the number of deaths from Covid-19 is still on an upward trend. The country first reported more than 300 Covid-related deaths on August 18 (312 and current record) and the number of deaths has been averaging around 255 deaths per day since then, compared to fewer than 200 in July.

To reduce the death rate, the government continues to urge people in vulnerable groups including those age 60 and above, people with underlying diseases and pregnant women to get vaccinated, Taweesin said.

He said the uptake of vaccination is still low for people age 60 and above who are living in rural areas where people are still scared of side effects and the Ministry of Public Health is working to change this mindset, he said.

Daily number

The CCSA reported 17,491 new Covid cases and 242 related deaths in the past 24 hours.

From the total number of new cases, 15,014 were found via walk-in tests at medical facilities, 2,470 were found via proactive tests at known clusters and seven were imported cases.

The third wave of the infection had led to 1.03 million cases and 9,468 related deaths since April 1 with a current mortality rate of 0.91 per cent, up from 0.85 per cent in mid-July.

More than 22,000 people recovered from the infection in the past 24 hours, bringing the number who have recovered since April 1 to 834,344 people.

There are 195,454 patients who are being treated at hospitals. Of those, 5,290 are in critical condition including 1,094 on ventilators.

Of the 17,086 confirmed cases in the general Thai population, the highest numbers were 3,472 in Bangkok followed by 1,396 in Samut Sakhon, 1,296 in Samut Prakan, 953 in Chonburi, 781 in Nonthaburi, 565 in Ratchaburi, 413 in Nakhon Pathom and 406 in Ayutthaya.

A total of 27.04 million Covid vaccines were administered between February 28 and August 22, including 20.43 million first doses, 6.07 million second doses and 543,968 third-booster shots. 

 

 

THAI Enquirer